Expert panel: Is the conference industry experiencing a 'Trump Effect'?

With Donald Trump as the new US president, the world is facing turbulent times. What does his policy mean for the meeting industry in Europe, and is there anything noticeable yet?

'Stock prices are generally good indicators'

Kim van Velzen | CCO at Postillion Hotels

“Reaction, backlash, and uncertainty: we know from history that the industry is often affected. Companies always wonder what it means for their own business. Uncertainty sometimes means putting things on hold or cutting extras or programme parts. It’s a way to keep costs manageable. We’ve seen that happen a few times recently.

Economic growth figures and stock prices ­usually provide a useful indication. If the stock market is doing well, then expenditures follow suit. When there’s a headwind, people tend to keep their wallets closed due to uncertainty. It can be for a short time, but also for a long period if the economy is doing badly.

The association market is less sensitive to these shifts. Planning is often done per conti­nent and usually a long time in advance. It therefore doesn’t immediately follow economic fluctuations. We will see how it develops further in the global economy. Fortunately, we’re a resilient sector and have often shown our ability to adapt to these kinds of developments.”

'Fewer abstracts means less income'

Marije Sant | Project Manager at Congress by design

“We don’t see any direct impact yet – the confe­rence season has just started – but we do expect it to happen. I expect we will see fewer participants and fewer abstracts from the ­United States.

It is certainly something we discuss with our clients. Questions like how much sponsorship can be expected from America, how many parti­cipants, and so on. If fewer abstracts are ­submitted, that means less income.

Maybe we should focus more on promoting on the European market. I’m currently assuming a small decline, but every abstract lost is a shame, especially in terms of sponsorship.

We’re also hearing reports that there will be fewer exhibitors and that people are buying fewer American products. The United States recently announced that American scientists working with national government organisa­tions are having difficulties travelling to Europe for work. What consequences will it have?

These are the matters that we consider internally as well as with our clients. It may be a minor setback, but it’s something to take into account.”

'COVID made us resilient'

Maurits van der Sluis | COO at RAI Amsterdam

“I don’t see this situation as a crisis yet, like the Internet bubble, SARS, the Icelandic ash cloud that paralysed air traffic, or the financial crisis. COVID was an exception; everything stopped for two years, which nobody could have predic­ted. We came through all the others crises ­reasonably well. They affected us, but not to the point that conferences and trade fairs came under much pressure. We stay up to date internally by asking our domain managers what’s going on. As management, we try to prepare ourselves for what’s to come.

I don’t see any major short-term effects. For example, we don’t have any cancellations for the trade fair we’re organising in the United States in September, and we’re not hearing ­anything about people dropping out.

We have to be well prepared by assessing the signals and scenarios that need to be taken into account. We survived COVID, which made us resilient.

And, as is often the case, every crisis also offers an opportunity. Canadian organisa­tions may focus more on Europe. New initia­tives could emerge from these developments. ­People are inventive. We’re alert; we’re working on it, but for now, everything seems to be ­running smoothly.

And let’s keep the discussion clean. You can be against Trump, but you don’t have to be against the United States. The country is still just a partner we do business with and where we hold events. I hope that everyone remains sensible and carries on.”

'I have yet to hear of any major unrest'

Maurice van der Kant | CEO at Assemblee Speakers

“As an international speakers agency, Assemblee Speakers works with speakers from here and abroad. Last week, we provided a speaker for a meeting in Las Vegas. There is regular contact with fellow organisations in other countries, especially the United States.”

For now, I don’t have the impression that it’s really an issue for them or that there’s a lot of unrest. We’re not hearing this, at least not from our contacts there. Of course, it’s being discussed, but it’s impossible to say at the moment how all these developments will affect the demand for speakers.

The US market has always been mainly domestic. Regarding speakers, the majority of those sought are regional domestic ones. Contributions from here often go online. Since COVID, fewer speakers from the United States travel here. In that sense, hopefully we will experience less disruption in our industry.

I am grateful that things are going well, conside­ring all the madness in the world and war. There’s a demand for local speakers, such as Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, former Secretary General of NATO; Mart de Kruif, retired Lieutenant General; and Peter van Uhm, retired General for the NATO Summit in The Hague in June.

What’s the answer? With President Trump, ­everything could change tomorrow. History shows that after chaos and change, there’s always a period of calm.”

'Collaborating is essential'

Dr Senthil Gopinath | CEO of the International Congress and Convention Association (ICCA)

“There are several ongoing concerns. The European meetings and events industry is currently grappling with a complex situation due to the challenges of post-COVID recovery, fluctuating economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainty. Venues and organisers are still under pressure from rising costs, staff shortages and energy prices.

The current situation in the United States, which is putting pressure on organisers in terms of suppliers, costs and travel issues with participants, is already being felt in our region. European associations are sensitive to the effects of global financial shifts, including the escalating tariff situation in the US, as well as issues with the cost of living, inflation and increased import duties. All of this directly affects both operational expenses and participating in international meetings. Geopolitical conflicts, including wars, also affect travel behaviour, insurance premiums and the overall perception of security.

These issues create unpredictability that can impact the planning and budgeting of international events. In addition, disruptions to global supply chains and rising energy costs due to conflict have created logistical challenges and increased costs for events. These are challenges, not threats.

As the global leader in the meetings and events community, ICCA plays a crucial role in supporting all our members. ICCA promotes open communication and knowledge sharing across borders and helps members adapt to changing circumstances. In uncertain times, we provide insights and information to our members and the global business events community as a whole so that meetings and events professionals can stay informed and navigate turbulent times safely. Organisations can engage with the sector at a policy level by highlighting the enormous economic and societal value of meetings and events for local destinations. Fostering partnerships between stakeholders with shared goals promotes solidarity. Collaborating is essential.”

'It can certainly have consequences for our sector'

Marie Louise Bot | Senior Conference Manager at Erasmus MC - Het Congresbureau

“There are certainly concerns for the future. Will American scientists be able to attend medical conferences in Europe if they’re no ­longer compensated for travel or accommodation as is currently the case? We’re already hearing this, which will certainly have consequences for large international conferences.

Whether it will impact participation in our confe­rences this fall in Rotterdam (Responsible AI in Health Care in September and PHAM 2025, the Planetary Health Annual Meeting in October) remains to be seen since registration just started.

We’re now also busy organising international conferences for the coming years, including 2028. We can only hope that the worst will be behind us by then. But how quickly will every­thing be fixed? Dismantling happens fast; ­building up usually does not. It could take years. If many participants drop out, it will have direct consequences for the budget and confe­rence results. It also means that some of the knowledge in the field will no longer come to your conference. Every conference is about networking, meeting colleagues and sharing knowledge.

These kinds of developments are disastrous for our profession. The health crisis left marks from which we have recently recovered. Every­one is busy organising international meetings and then this happens. We’re not even talking about a trade war because economic malaise also has an effect.”